WHY RUSSIA WILL NOT RETURN CRIMEA
In 2014, Russia seized
the Crimean peninsula and destabilized Ukraine’s Eastern provinces of Donetsk
and Luhansk. In the Western world, scholars often interrogate themselves over
the possibility to see Crimea returned to Ukraine. Many of them believe that
Crimea might not be necessarily lost forever; however, several considerations
suggest that the contrary is true. Instead, the case is different for the two
provinces in Eastern Ukraine.
To begin with, Russia
is installing new missile-defense systems in the peninsula. Back in the spring
of 2017, Moscow deployed a division armed with S-400 “Triumph” missile-defense
systems near Feodosia, in Crimea. This system is capable of hitting aircrafts
and ICBMs flying within a range of 400 km and 60 km respectively. Recently,
after the decision of the Trump administration to provide Ukraine with American
weapons, Russia responded installing another division of S-400s near the city
of Sevastopol. Tellingly, these devices can be turned into “offensive mode” in
less than 5 minutes. The symbolic relevance of these moves and the strategic
potential of the S-400 clearly indicate that Russia is in Crimea to stay. It is
also worth to mention that the only logistic base of Russia’s Black Sea fleet
is located in Sevastopol, which thus is an indispensable resource.
Secondly, the seizure
of Crimea became a new building block of Russia's national identity.
Historically, the political myth of Russia being a strong military power
determined the foreign policy of the country and the collective identity of
Russian citizens. After the traumatic experience of the fall of the USSR and
the 30 years of economic, social and political strife that followed, Crimea
represents for Russians the renewed strength of their motherland. This is why
giving Crimea back to Ukraine would be a calamity from a Russian standpoint,
and imply enormous electoral costs for Vladimir Putin. Also, giving back Crimea
would legitimize Ukraine accession to NATO, the same issue that sparked the
Crimean crisis.
Regarding the Luhansk
and Donetsk provinces, the situation is different. Russia has everything to
gain from freezing the status quo. Its aim would be maintaining an area of
instability in Ukraine to prevent the country from joining NATO. Should Russia
annex the two provinces like it did in Crimea, the remaining part of Ukraine
would be free to join the North Atlantic Organization. Instead, with the two districts under
Ukraine's sovereignty but in a situation of frozen conflict, the country would
not meet the requirements to join NATO. Moreover, leaving Donetsk and Luhansk
under Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia could still leverage the Russian-speaking
population of the two provinces to influence Ukraine’s internal political
processes.
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